Weighted Sales Forecasting Model

Create a sales forecast model for [COMPANY NAME], which has [NUMBER] salespeople, a current pipeline of $[TOTAL VALUE], and a monthly target of $[MONTHLY TARGET].\n\n**1) Stage-Weighted Forecast:**\n\n| Stage | Historical Probability | Current Pipeline | Forecast |\n|-------|------------------------|------------------|----------|\n| [STAGE 1] | [X]% | $[VALUE] | $[VALUE] |\n| ... | ... | ... | ... |\n\n- How to calculate real probability (historical data vs. gut feeling)\n- Per-salesperson adjustments (rep A converts more at stage X)\n- Seasonal adjustments (strong vs. weak months in [INDUSTRY/SEGMENT])\n\n**2) Pipeline Velocity Analysis:**\n- Formula: Pipeline Velocity = (Deals × Win Rate × ACV) / Sales Cycle\n- How to calculate per salesperson and for the team\n- Internal benchmark: what indicates health vs. problem\n- Corrective actions when velocity drops\n\n**3) Pipeline Coverage:**\n- Ideal coverage rule: [3-4x] the target\n- How to calculate per period (monthly, quarterly)\n- Pipeline gap: how much needs to be generated to hit target\n- Actions by coverage range:\n  - < 2x: red alert — accelerate pipeline generation\n  - 2-3x: yellow alert — increase conversion\n  - 3-4x: healthy — maintain pace\n  - > 4x: possible pipeline inflation — audit deals\n\n**4) Commit Categories:**\n- **Commit**: deal that WILL close (95%+ certainty) — criteria\n- **Best Case**: deal with good chance (60-80%) — criteria\n- **Pipeline**: deal in early stage (20-50%) — criteria\n- **Upside**: unexpected deal that may appear — how to estimate\n\n**5) Board Presentation Model:**\n- Executive summary (1 slide)\n- Pipeline breakdown by stage and salesperson\n- Forecast: commit + best case + pipeline\n- Risks and dependencies\n- Planned actions to close the gap\n\n**6) Spreadsheet Template:**\n- Tab 1: Detailed pipeline (deal by deal)\n- Tab 2: Weighted forecast (automatic calculations)\n- Tab 3: Velocity analysis\n- Tab 4: Visual dashboard\n- All formulas explicitly shown\n\nInclude a forecast accuracy tracking system (forecast vs. actual).