Effort Estimation Using Three-Point Technique
Applies PERT estimation to calculate activity duration and effort.
Calculate realistic effort estimates using the PERT three-point technique to reduce uncertainty and create more reliable schedules.
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Prompt objective
Calculate realistic effort estimates using the PERT three-point technique to reduce uncertainty and create more reliable schedules.
Real use case
The product team at AppVerde needs to estimate effort for 25 user stories for the next quarter. Historically, story point estimates diverge 40% from actual effort. The Scrum Master wants to adopt PERT estimation for the executive roadmap.
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Prompt
Create an effort estimation spreadsheet using the three-point technique (PERT) for: Project: [PROJECT NAME] Activities to estimate: [LIST ACTIVITIES OR PASTE USER STORY LIST] Measurement unit: [HOURS / DAYS / STORY POINTS] Desired confidence level: [85% / 90% / 95%] For each activity, provide: 1) Optimistic estimate (O) — scenario with no blockers 2) Most likely estimate (M) — realistic scenario 3) Pessimistic estimate (P) — scenario with problems 4) PERT average: (O + 4M + P) / 6 5) Standard deviation: (P - O) / 6 6) Variance: σ² 7) Confidence interval for the requested level Add at the end: - Critical path total with confidence interval - Simplified Monte Carlo analysis (likely completion distribution) - Buffer recommendation based on cumulative variance - 5 tips to improve estimation quality based on historical data - CSV template for import into Excel/Sheets Format: detailed table + statistical analysis + recommendations.
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